Analysis of Amendment 3: The Depressing Reality of Legalization, Part 2
Getting high and dropping out? The costs will make tax collections by the state revenue negative.
In 2018, the Centennial Institute at Colorado Christian University published a report titled, Economic and Social Costs of Legalized Marijuana. The findings of the 94 page report were alarming. The study determined, “For every dollar gain in tax revenue, Coloradans spent approximately $4.50 to mitigate the effects of legalization. Costs related to the healthcare system and from high school drop-outs are the largest cost contributors.”
High school drop-outs?
It is quite an issue. According to the study, it estimated the average student who doesn’t receive a high school diploma costs the state $334,716.00 in economic productivity. In 2017, there were 3187 suspensions for marijuana in Colorado high schools. After their first suspension, 32% of Colorado students drop-out. That is over $341 million of lost economic activity. An additional 245 were expelled for marijuana possession that same year bringing the estimated losses to $423.4 million. That’s over 3400 drop-outs for weed possession in a state with just over 270,405 high school students enrolled in 2017-18. The Florida Sheriff’s Association has come out against Amendment 3 noting, “Advocates of marijuana fail to account for the limited marijuana tax revenue collected is offset by even greater costs to taxpayers, ranging from additional healthcare costs to more students dropping out.”
According to Colorado, the tax revenue for 2017 was $247.4 million. Proponents of legalization say the tax revenue goes to fund education. Well, according to the study, tax revenues are about $176 million short as illegal marijuana use is on the rise among teenagers. The report also determined that marijuana use is up 9% among the ages of 12-17 since legalization. The Rocky Mountain High Intensity Drug Trafficking Report - September 2021 shows that age group ranks 7th with 39% of it “using in the past month.”
Written by the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, the Rocky Mountain report notes the 18-25 college-aged group ranks 3rd in the nation. It was up nearly 33% since legalization with 53% now being users in the past month.
Also from the Rocky Mountain report, since its first publication on legalization in 2013, the suicides where marijuana was found in the toxicology report has increased from 14% to 29% by 2020. In all, Colorado’s estimated economic and social costs average over $1.1 billion annually.
Collecting taxes is tough while an illegal market flourishes.
While Colorado is smaller in population, it is a demonstration of the costs of legalization. California’s market costs cannot be clearly determined because over 80% of its marijuana is transacted illegally which National Public Radio reported in 2021. The government broadcaster noted that Colorado’s illicit market was at 35%.
According to Cannabis Business Times, 15% of the legal California operators from growers, distributors and retailers are in tax default. Tax revenue for 2023 was just over a billion dollars of the state’s $297 billion budget. The publication framed the seizures of property and penalties levied for tax default as “the war on drugs 2.0.”
In Florida, Amendment 3 would produce the largest market in the world for weed purchases, even bigger than California. It will allow for an unprecedented 3 ounces of cannabis at one time and give a declared right to recreational smoking in all manner of public spaces. Yet, if you are medicinal user that carries a medical card, you do not get public smoking privileges. For medical users, the drug comes with standard warnings concerning driving automobiles or operating machinery.
If Amendment 3 passes, Florida will be a prime umbrella market for illicit activity as was pointed out in Part 1 of our analysis. In their resolution, the Florida Sheriff’s Association has wrote, “The average potency of marijuana increased from 3.75% THC in 1995 to 15.8% in 2018. The use of high potency marijuana is associated with the development of anxiety, depression, psychosis, and schizophrenia, in addition to cannabis use disorder.”
A 2017 report from the Society for the Study of Addiction (SSA) that analyzed the data of Washington State sales of recreational marijuana products revealed the THC content level average at 20.59% per sale of marijuana flower. Marijuana flower accounts for 66% of state sales. Because Washington has a traceability system that tracks each sale, the SSA was able to analyze data from 30 million transactions. The peer reviewed report states, “Among flower products, the market share of strains with greater than 15% THC has grown to 92.5% of flower sales and an even greater share of THC consumption,” adding, “The market share of flower products with more than 20% THC has increased by 48.4% since October 2014.”
Meanwhile, THC quantities between 10-15% have dropped by 60%. The data clearly shows that users are trending toward purchases that offer greater hallucinogenic experiences. It leads to more disorders produced by addiction to these unchartered potency levels. Up until 2001, most marijuana sold on the illegal market was roughly 5% THC level. The SSA report surmises, “Washington’s legal cannabis market has trended toward higher-THC products, as flower products with THC concentration over 20% and extract products with over 60% THC are now commonplace.”
While Washington State has one of the lowest costs for retail marijuana in the country, it is only because of the state’s minimal regulatory control in setting up a dispensary. California has high barriers to entry into the marijuana marketplace doubling prices for consumers compared to Washington State. In Florida, the barrier will be even higher. A constitutionally mandated oligopoly will be controlling the marketplace causing massive closures of current independent small businesses. Like what happened in California which had a 20 year established medical marketplace, many of the Florida independent retailers in the medical market may go underground. People will not be allowed to grow their own marijuana. Big Weed will take over with little ability to regulate through the legislature. Regulation will only be made by lawsuits costing Floridians millions and more police enforcement.
Amendment 3 will also protect these outside corporations from liability regarding their products. The amendment reads in section (a):
“(3) Actions and conduct by a Medical Marijuana Treatment Center registered with the Department, or its agents or employees, and in compliance with this section and Department regulations, shall not be subject to criminal or civil liability or sanctions under Florida law.
(4) The non-medical personal use of marijuana products and marijuana accessories by an adult, as defined below, in compliance with this section is not subject to any criminal or civil liability or sanctions under Florida Law.”
Meanwhile the black market will flourish as the newly installed oligopoly of a limited number of dispensaries attempts to reconstruct the market place for their own profits.
If citizens don’t want to “California our Florida” then vote “No” on 3.