Analysis of Amendment 3: The Depressing Reality of Legalization, Part 1
In Colorado, weed legalization led to organized crime & societal issues resulting in real incarceration numbers and no new state revenue.
Sebastian Daily polled their readers back in August on Amendment 3 and found 62% of readers surveyed wanted legalization. Florida is the third most populated state in the USA. The legalized weed market for Florida is estimated to be worth $6 billion annually. Medical marijuana giant, Trulieve, has burned through $87 million to get Amendment 3 passed. The Chicago based Verano Holdings Corp. put in over $3.5 million. Curaleaf added $2 million. It would be the largest market for marijuana in the world, and these companies with a few others would be the controlling oligopoly with a constitutional mandate.
Smart and Safe Florida, the authors of the amendment, are sending out flyers with Donald Trump’s endorsement on it. An adamant anti-drug and alcohol grandpa within his family, why is Mr. Trump thinking in such manner about Amendment 3?
In a Truth Social post on September 8, the former president wrote,
“As I have previously stated, I believe it is time to end needless arrests and incarcerations of adults for small amounts of marijuana for personal use. We must also implement smart regulations, while providing access for adults, to safe, tested product. As a Floridian, I will be voting YES on Amendment 3 this November.”
Applauded for his first-term criminal reform bill, it seems that Mr. Trump has his own derangement syndrome about “needless incarcerations” and other nefarious narratives to sway public opinion on weed legalization.
The Secretary of the Florida Department of Corrections, Ricky Dixon, issued a lengthy public statement on August 12, 2024. In part, he wrote, “Various false claims have emerged suggesting that many inmates are serving time solely for low-level marijuana offenses. These assertions are untrue, and in some cases, intentionally disingenuous. Media outlets have willfully published plain falsehoods around the incarceration of individuals in Florida’s prisons.”
He accused some, particularly in media when he named the Tampa Bay Times, of propagating a lie. The newspaper falsely claimed people can serve up to a year for a first degree misdemeanor for illegal drug possession. He said, “In fact, Florida state law does not permit a misdemeanor charge of marijuana possession of 20 grams or less alone to lead to incarceration in a state prison.”
He demonstrated how, currently, of the 87,000 inmates in Florida’s prison system, only 37 inmates are serving time for singular charges of possession of more than 20 grams of marijuana. More than 20 grams is a drug trafficking amount. All of the data is easily verifiable via public records. He added, “There are no inmates serving time exclusively for possessing 20 grams or less of marijuana.”
Amendment 3 proposes a limit of 3 ounces of marijuana which is 84 grams. For those who may not know the common illegal trade amounts, 7 grams is a quarter ounce. On the street, this amount, or half of it are common sizes for resale. One gram is a very common sellable street amount. How will police know who are the black market dealers and who are not when you allow for the population to possess distributive amounts that can be broken down into marketable street quantities for resale?
In the USA, Florida will have the largest quantity allowed for a citizen to possess for personal use if Amendment 3 passes. The fear among opponents is that the state will attract weed tourism as much as it does beach vacationers. States like Colorado show it will definitely be a distribution center for organized drug trafficking.
In 2012, Colorado became the first state to embrace the legalization of recreational marijuana. The state began its commercialization process of marijuana in 2009 when it legalized it for medical purposes only. Now, 66% of their counties have outlawed its sale for medical and recreational purposes due to unforeseen consequences.
Since Colorado’s legalization, the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy has studied the effect of the marijuana laws on the state. According to the latest 2021 report furnished by their Rocky Mountain High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area office, seizures of black market marijuana in Colorado increased 48% in the years after legalization for recreational purposes. The seized marijuana was destined for 21 different states. In 2017, the state seized 7.4 tons of bulk cannabis. In 2018, authorities captured 6.1 tons of trafficked marijuana. In 2019, the amount seized was 7.5 tons.
In 2020, it dropped down to 5.5 tons of bulk marijuana. The report concludes, that in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to lower numbers. Yet, seizures of concentrated THC doubled in that period of time. A common use of the concentrate is in vape cartridges which are popular among teenagers.
It was only 2014, that law enforcement interdicted a low of 425 pounds of pot. Since 2014, felony arrests have risen 2.5 times for drug trafficking. In 2019, the state had its largest illegal marijuana drug bust ever. Obviously, under the cover of legalization, Colorado has become a marijuana distribution center. The report noted, “… Price may in fact be a barrier to transitioning to the legal market; however, it is also possible that higher prices may be tolerated given that legal cannabis products may be perceived as higher quality, safer and more convenient to access. However, frequent users may be able to obtain what they perceive as high- quality products at lower prices through established relationships with unauthorized dealers.”
The report suggests that legalized marijuana stabilizes black-market pricing. In an effort to capitalize on the perceived tax revenues from legalization, government intervention to make “marijuana distribution safe” actually has had an inverted effect. Colorado levies 30% retail and excise taxes combined on sales. Yet, the Rocky Mountain report noted that marijuana tax revenue was less than 1% of the state’s 2020 budget.
Also, property values have been impacted by the presence of neighborhood marijuana dispensaries. The report cited a study in Washington state that saw decrease of 3%-4% of home values in a neighborhood with a retail dispensary (report citation: Thomas, Danna & Tian, Lin, 2021. "Hits from the Bong: The impact of recreational marijuana dispensaries on property values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87). The authors of the study stated, “Moreover, we find evidence that violent crime slightly increases in census tracts adjoining those where dispensaries locate.”
The common myth is that legalization will decrease crime. However, that has not been the case in Colorado or Washington. The Rocky Mountain report found, “There was a statistically significant increase in larceny in Colorado immediately after legalization as well as an increase in aggravated assaults, burglary, and overall property crime in Washington.”
While these increases did not sustain over a long period of time in either state, they leveled to numbers before legalization. The report also concluded that most of law enforcement’s focus has shifted to investigating marijuana-related DUI cases rather than other crime enforcement. The report stated that since legalization in Colorado, “traffic deaths where drivers tested positive for marijuana increased 138%.”
In Florida, where expenses like automobile insurance rates are already the highest in the nation, legalization may bring other unintended costs along with it that have not been accounted for by the corporate interests behind Amendment 3. Colorado has seen any revenue generated wiped-out by increasing law enforcement issues and growing societal ills. One study shows the costs of legalization in Colorado are over 4.5 times revenue. As a result, a super majority of the state no longer wants it.
So, why would Florida?